India’s GDP is expected to rise by 6.5 percent in FY26
S&P Global Ratings predicted on Tuesday that India’s GDP will increase at a rate of 6.5% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, demonstrating a robust economy in the Asia-Pacific region despite global uncertainty.
In its most recent quarterly economic report for Asia-Pacific economies, the global banking institution stated, “This assumes that the upcoming monsoon season will be normal and that commodity — especially crude — prices will be soft.”
“Discretionary consumption will be supported by lowering borrowing costs, reducing food inflation, and the tax benefits announced in the nation’s budget for the fiscal year ending March 2026,” it continued.
Trade will be more resilient in nations where a significant portion of exports are services, as tariffs are often imposed on products. This is particularly true for India and the Philippines. Regarding rate cuts, S&P Global Ratings predicted that during the current cycle, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will lower interest rates by an additional 75–100 basis points.
According to the report, “food inflation will ease and crude prices will drop, bringing headline inflation closer to the central bank’s target of 4% in the fiscal year ending March 2026 and fiscal policy is contained.”
It said that “the robustness of our forecasts underscores the resilience of the regional economies” in light of the number of governmental initiatives and outside forces affecting Asia-Pacific. China’s economy will be impacted by the US tax increases on its exports, nevertheless.
“Our November baseline included 10% U.S. tariffs, which implies a roughly 25% effective U.S. tariff on Chinese exports. The effective rate will rise to roughly 35% with the additional 10% charges. Through decreased investment, exports, and other knock-on impacts, that will slow China’s growth,” the research stated.
It further stated that South Korea (mostly due to vehicles), Singapore (primarily due to pharmaceutical items), and Malaysia (primarily due to semiconductors) could be the countries most affected in terms of GDP growth.